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Friday, October 18, 2024

The Lefsetz Letter: Pearl Jam For Half-Worth







“UNEVEN CASH FLOW – Followers of big rock band left fuming as tickets for stadium present are slashed by 50% after poor gross sales”: https://t.ly/hCCx2

The music enterprise has traditionally been opaque. They are saying one factor when the reality is one other. They’ll let you know they’re including exhibits as a result of the earlier ones are offered out, so you purchase further tickets to scalp, however you find yourself discovering out they lied, the earlier present was not offered out, and you may’t lay off your tickets at anyplace close to face worth, if in any respect.

However the panorama is altering. Due to data.

Let’s begin with the blue dots. The Ticketmaster website is a plethora of data. You’ll be able to see what tickets are nonetheless obtainable, which of them are for resale, and when J.Lo canceled her tour nobody believed it, as a result of there have been seas of blue dots throughout Ticketmaster.

However that’s not all. Now we have now Twitter websites that provide you with this data and extra. I like to recommend you observe @underfacevalue and Ticket_Help2022 The insiders do, X gives this data.

So all we’ve been listening to about is ticket costs are artificially excessive due to Ticketmaster, nobody in authorities speaks of provide and demand, however with regards to eating places…

You won’t be following the kerfuffle. Individuals are scalping restaurant reservations in New York. So that they handed a regulation to attempt to eradicate this:

“Why NYC’s Hottest Eating Reservations Will Keep Not possible to Rating – A proposed regulation aimed toward bots and scalpers who cater to wealthy and determined restaurant followers isn’t assured to make getting a sizzling desk simpler.”

Free hyperlink: https://t.ly/dCZaA

I like this Bloomberg headline as a result of it’s precisely what insiders learn about live performance tickets and everybody within the authorities appears to not. The issue isn’t Ticketmaster, the issue is SUPPLY AND DEMAND!

In case you learn this text you’ll discover that the typical spend for dinner at these eating places is $100 to $150. However when musical artists cost the identical factor individuals go NUTS! The identical boomers complaining about Springsteen ticket costs haven’t any downside dropping these quantities for dinner. What provides? Every is an evanescent expertise, and a live performance is likely to be as soon as in a lifetime, the band may by no means come again to your city, you may by no means ever be capable of see them once more!

However nobody is cracking down on live performance ticket scalping, as a result of the scalpers have too robust a foyer, they’re organized, whereas the restaurant reservation enterprise is a nascent one.

Rising Brown junior Alex Eisler made 100k promoting restaurant reservations placing in solely half an hour to 2 hours a day. Nature abhors a vacuum. Which is why we have now restaurant reservation scalpers, and live performance ticket scalpers. You’d suppose acts would cost what the ticket is value, however no, they’re afraid of being judged, WHY?

As for Pearl Jam… The band broke within the nineties. Their hardcore followers are Gen-X’ers, now of their fifties. They’ve the cash, however sarcastically they’re those who suppose twice about paying it.

However we will argue that Pearl Jam is extra of an American act.

However we will say the promoter misjudged the market. That’s what occurred with the Black Keys and J.Lo. What occurred yesterday doesn’t apply to at present.

Yesterday, each present offered out. Demand was by means of the roof. Why not cost extra, in any other case the scalpers will reap the good thing about the unfold.

Nevertheless it seems the shopper is saying no. This is identical buyer who regardless of listening to advert infinitum how the economic system goes nice, finds meals and different prices rather more costly.

They’re holding on to their {dollars}.

So what we’re seeing is a value correction, in entrance of our very eyes. And the general public is conscious of this. And nobody, NO ONE, likes discovering out the individual proper subsequent to them paid much less for what they purchased. We’ve discovered to simply accept this with airways, however the finish result’s all people hates the airways, who’ve rigged the system by consolidation and lack of competitors on routes. That is Napster ready to occur. And in actuality, airline costs are coming down too. That post-Covid mania has expired.

So what sells?

Effectively, Noah Kahan is a breakthrough artist. However how many individuals has he truly damaged by means of to? This isn’t an MTV act from the eighties. Most individuals don’t even know his identify. And in actuality, regardless of being within the market for quite a few years, he’s seen as a brand new act, and persons are questioning if it’s value it to put down all this dough.

And in the event you’re working on fumes, out enjoying your biggest hits…

Effectively, hopefully you’re doing it on the shed, the place the promoter has different streams of income in addition to tickets, the place there may be oftentimes an inexpensive garden, as a result of in the event you put up your present on the area, GOOD LUCK!

However Taylor Swift exhibits offered out and fogeys couldn’t purchase their youngsters tickets so somebody should be at fault.

The reality is Swift was a genius. She put up all her U.S. tickets without delay to create mania to ensure she went clear. Sure, the soiled little secret of the earlier tour was she didn’t promote each ticket. However whenever you get caught up within the maelstrom…you don’t need to be omitted. And by no means underestimate the ability of oldsters. They’re vicious with regards to delivering what their youngsters need.

So what occurs now?

Attention-grabbing query.

As for the common boomer bands… They’re near the tip, so all people is actually questioning whether or not it’s the final time. Nonetheless, individuals have been speculating on the final time for years now. However, these bands have been going out at astronomical costs for a very long time, so the general public is used to it, and they’re real superstars.

What number of acts of the final fifteen years have reached this standing, the place all people in America is aware of their tunes? Completely nobody. Interval. Nonetheless, there are extra individuals in America than ever earlier than, and music is a novel visceral expertise in a world the place all of us personal the identical units. So it’s a big cult viewers and… Nobody goes to considered one of these exhibits on a whim, they’re simply too costly.

And why do they preserve canceling festivals? Are they too costly or is the lineup not enticing sufficient or each?

And generally you’ll be able to decrease the costs and other people nonetheless don’t need to come.

So in the event you’re planning a tour now… The info is simply coming in. You possibly can put up exhibits and do awful enterprise or put up exhibits and promote out and want you performed greater buildings at larger costs.

And the place is the federal government on this? Nowhere to be seen.

We’re seeing a correction. The nice previous days are behind us. Are there new good days to return?

Effectively, we thought when the basic acts handed that everyone can be enjoying smaller buildings, however there are extra stadium exhibits than ever earlier than. Audiences are narrower, however they’re very deep.

So right here you discover the essence of live performance promotion. Nothing is assured, it’s a wager. AI ain’t gonna let you know, knowledge solely means a lot, it’s a intestine choice, and nice music hits you in the identical approach, the intestine.

However the backside line is individuals don’t need to pay as a lot as they’ve been paying for the previous two years to see most acts. How a lot of that is the act, how a lot of that is the economic system, how a lot of that is music’s place within the panorama?

Let’s ask the federal government. Ha!

 

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